Florida’s 2026 governor’s race heats up as Paul Renner challenges Byron Donalds

TALLAHASSEE, FL - Florida’s next governor’s race is starting to take shape, and two big Republican names are now officially on a collision course.

Former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner announced Wednesday that he’s entering the race for governor, setting up a high-profile GOP primary battle with Congressman Byron Donalds, who launched his campaign last year.

Renner framed his candidacy to carry forward Gov. Ron DeSantis’s legacy while addressing new challenges.

“I’m the right guy to step in and not only defend what we’ve fought for here in Florida, the Florida we love, but to also address its challenges because we still have challenges,” Renner said.

Donalds, a conservative firebrand from Southwest Florida, has emphasized his support from former President Donald Trump. That endorsement could give him a significant edge. A July 8–10 St. Pete Polls survey of likely Republican primary voters finds Donalds holding 34.9% support, compared to 2.2% for Renner.

Political analyst Susan MacManus said the Trump factor could matter.

“It makes it more difficult for the others because they don’t want to really be against Trump,” she explained. “But it depends a lot on how strongly Trump will come to the forefront and be actively involved in promoting Donalds’ campaign.”

Despite Florida’s political divides, one issue that cuts across party lines is affordability.

Renner is focusing on inflation and property taxes.

“The inflation that was started during COVID still lingers. We’ve got to address property taxes and roll those back in a significant way,” he said.

Donalds, meanwhile, has zeroed in on Florida’s ongoing property insurance crisis at a town hall in April.

“We’ve got to examine capital requirements on both the frontline carriers and the reinsurance companies,” Donalds said.

On the Democratic side, David Jolly, a former Republican congressman, is so far the party’s only major candidate. Jolly, who switched parties after leaving Congress, acknowledges the challenges ahead.

“This is a different race, a different cycle, and a different candidate,” Jolly said.

Still, he admits that Democrats face a steep climb against Republicans, who now hold a more than 1 million-voter registration advantage in Florida.

“Just maybe, I can perform differently in the voting booth than I have in the past,” he said. “Maybe I can set aside my partisanship because I see the opportunity to change the direction of Florida.”

With about a year until Election Day, MacManus said the race remains wide open.

“It’s really hard to become a household name in Florida,” MacManus noted, adding that “the right issue and figuring out the best way to reach likely voters in the primary” will be key to breaking through."

She also pointed to growing voter fatigue and distrust in politics, which could shape turnout in 2026.

With plenty of time left before the primaries, more names could still jump into the race.